The PILDAT Governance Monitor attempts to delineate the various positive and negative developments during June 2015-July 2015 that have affected the quality of governance in Pakistan during this period.

 
Budget 2015-2016 Announced Amidst Last Year’s Missed Targets

Taking stock of developments related to the Federal Budget for 2015-2016 announced by the Finance Minister, Senator Muhammad Ishaq Dar on June 5 2015, PILDAT has noted that the overall budget size (Rs. 4451.3 billion) has increased by 3.5% since last year; out of which 78% is envisaged for current expenditures and 22% for development expenditure. Table 1 below gives a break down of the current expenditures for FY 2015-2016. Additionally, the net revenue receipts are estimated to be 10.7% more than the budget estimates of 2014-2015.

While appreciating the allocations worth Rs. 20 billion on projects related to higher education, the proposed expenditure of education in the Budget 2015-2016 is only 1.67 %¹, which is considerably below the target of 4% set for the year 2017-2018. It is also important to consider that after the 18th Amendment, education has been devolved to the provinces, which means that the Provincial Governments will have to become more active in the Education Sector to achieve the set target of education expenditure.

Another interesting allocation is the Rs.20 billion set aside for achieving Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the Community Development Programme. The question arises whether these allocations are meaningful and able to fulfill development goals set for the year 2015-2016 or are merely eleventh-hour increases to act as ‘untied funds’ since there are only six months left in the MDG’s deadline; December 31, 2015.

The Budget 2015-2016 has allocated Rs.102 billion to the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP), which is a welcome increase of 5.2% from the previous allocation of Rs. 97 billion. Increased spending on BISP, Prime Minister’s Youth Loan Scheme, Income Tax Reliefs and a 7.5% increase in pay and pension of governments servants are some decisions taken by the Federal Government; geared towards alleviating poverty.

Amidst these developments and Government’s claims of a pro-poor budget, the unveiling of the Economic Survey 2014-2015 reveals several missed targets for FY 2014-2015, which includes the 5.1 % growth rate target.² This year the Government aims to achieve 5.5% growth rate. It is needless to say that the Government should exercise greater prudence by setting achievable and realistic goals. Additionally, Pakistan’s Tax-to-GDP ratio declined in FY 2014-2015 from 10.2% to 7.5% despite government efforts to widen the tax base through structural reforms. For the FY 2015-2016 the Federal Government seems determined to institute tax reforms to increase tax revenue collection. New taxes worth Rs.253 billion are to be exercised in the FY 2015-2016 in order to achieve the target of Rs. 3.1 trillion which is rather ambitious and a significant jump from budget of FY 2014-2015, approximately 19%.³

A significant proportion of the Budget has also been allocated to the Energy Sector i.e. Rs. 248 billion⁴, however there is no clear strategy in place to deal with the burgeoning problem of circular debt.⁵ Moreover, the Budget only caters to the Power Sector, with no development allocations for the Gas and Oil Sectors as well as projects like the Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline.⁶ The Prime Minister is committed to exploring alternate sources of clean energy and in order to fulfill that commitment the Government has allocated approximately Rs.52 billion for the Dasu Hydropower Project. Another Rs.21 billion has been allocated to the construction of the Diamir Basha Dam, Rs.11 billion for Nelum Jhelum Hydropower and another Rs.11 billion for the Tarbela IV-Extension Hydropower Project. These allocations are intended to significantly increase the power generation capacity of the country and they reflect the current PML-N Government’s strong commitment to pursuing environment friendly, low cost energy production. PILDAT believes this focus on environment friendly energy generation will pave the way for achieving sustainable development goals.⁷

Table 1: Current Expenditure Break Down for FY 2015-2016

Current Expenditures	Billion (Rs.)	Percentage of Current
General Public Service*	2,446.6	70.26%
Defense Affairs & Services	781.2	23.00%
Public Order and Safety Services	95	3.00%
Education Affairs & Services	75.5	2.00%
Economic Affairs**	60.2	1.70%
Health Affairs & Services	11	0.30%
Recreation, Culture & Religion	7.6	0.20%
Housing and Community Amenities	2.3	0.07%
Social Protection	1.8	0.05%
Environment Protection	1.0	0.03%
Total Current	3482.2	100%

*Includes expenses relating to the organization and operation of government such as those related to the Parliament, the Governor-General and conduct of elections; the collection of taxes and the management of public funds and public debt.

**This includes agriculture, food, irrigation, forestry & fishing, fuel & energy, mining & manufacturing, construction & transportation, communication.

 
The Year of Local Government Elections in Pakistan; 2015

On June 29, 2015 the National Assembly passed the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) Local Government Bill 2015, paving way for Local Government elections in Islamabad. The first ever local Government elections in Islamabad were previously scheduled for July 25, 2015 but were postponed indefinitely in the absence of the pending legislation; Islamabad Capital Territory Local Government Act.

This is a welcome development after the prolonged delay by the Federal Government in instituting a Local Government setup, despite the fact that the 18th Amendment to the Constitution of Pakistan has made it mandatory.

Article 140(A) of the Constitution explicitly states, “Each Province shall, by law, establish a local government system and devolve political, administrative, and financial responsibility and authority to the elected representatives of the local governments.” Moreover, sub-clause 2 of the same article stipulates, “Election to the local governments shall be held by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP)”⁸

Additionally, re-polling on 358 polling stations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) took place on July 30, 2015 in which the ruling party in KP; Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) emerged victorious; securing 255 seats followed by independent candidates who secured 133 slots. The Awami National Party (ANP) came in third; securing a total of 101 seats, in KP local body elections.⁹ The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has surpassed expectations by ensuring smooth execution of polls.¹⁰ This is a welcome development after the sub-par performance by ECP in May, 2015 when significant irregularities and acts of mismanagement were observed. PILDAT commends the law enforcing agencies, ECP and the general public in KP for ensuring peaceful re-polling in the province.

It is also important to note that the earlier, Local Government polls were temporarily delayed in Punjab and Sindh on the pretext of heavy flooding in the region. In a recent development this week, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has decided to hold first phase of Local Government elections in Sindh and Punjab on October 10, 2015. The schedule is to be announced later this week. PILDAT is hopeful that this announcement will come to maturity, as scheduled by the ECP. Additionally, rules and regulations need to be established that facilitate effective local governance arrangements through adequate devolution of fiscal, political and administrative power to local councils.

In another recent development the Punjab Government promulgated the Punjab Local Government (Amendment) Ordinance on July 17, 2015.¹¹ The Amendment has been heavily criticized on the grounds that it is promoting indirect elections. The issue raised is that the Government is deliberately preventing people from directly electing candidates on reserved seats for women, minorities and others. According to the Punjab Government¹² this Ordinance has been enacted so that it will simplify election procedures and reduce expenditure by cutting down on the ballot papers needed for direct voting of members for general seats.

PILDAT believes this rule should be revisited in order to ensure that marginalized groups and minorities have Local Government representation by enabling direct elections. Moreover it is prudent for Provincial Governments to recalibrate the rules and procedures of local governance, by focusing less on centralization of Government functions for the sake of political expediency and more on acting in accordance with the true nature of the 18th Amendment; which intends to empower Local Government structures.

National Defense

 
Pakistan Army Celebrates One-Year Anniversary of Zarb-e-Azb

June 15, 2015 marked the completion of one year of the Zarb-e-Azb operation undertaken by the Pakistani Military against the militants in North Waziristan. The Military Officials have termed Zarb-e-Azb a resounding success and the primary contributor to the significant drop in acts of terrorism in Pakistan. According to statistics reported by the South Asian Terrorism Portal, civilian casualties from terrorist violence are in decline: dropping 40 per cent in 2014 – the year the operation was launched – to 65 per cent in 2015.¹³ Moreover, 2,763 terrorists have been killed, 837 militants’ hideouts destroyed and 253 tonnes of explosives recovered so far.¹⁴

PILDAT commends the success of the operation, which is considered to be a major ‘game-changer’ with regards to problems of militancy and security, however as PILDAT had noted in its Monitor on Civil-Military Relations¹⁵ in Pakistan for the first two years of the Federal Government, there are concerns regarding the absence of a civil set-up which can effectively govern the area after the military has done its part. Moreover, as noted earlier by PILDAT¹⁶; the continued dormancy of the National Security Council (NSC) is inhibiting its potential to provide systematic oversight over the Zarb-e-Azb operation. Despite the comprehensive plan that has been chalked out by the Pakistan Army for resettlement of Temporarily Displaced Persons there is lack of civil participation in the process. The Military and the Civil Government need to collaborate effectively to implement and ensure dignified and protected repatriation of displaced persons. Additionally, the positive role played by media while covering details of the operation is noteworthy. The common themes of discussion emerging from media reports on Zarb-e-Azb have been objective and purposive, reflecting media’s maturity and sense of support for the country’s armed forces in undertaking the operation.

While it is important to take stock of the success of the operation, in the aftermath of this positive development, it is equally important to consider future steps the State and Society need to take, to completely uproot terror from Pakistan in order to uphold and strengthen governance structures in place.¹⁸

 
Punjab Government Committed to Curbing Terror Financing

Another welcome development on the peace and order front is the recent initiative taken by the Punjab Police to curb terror financing. Cases have been registered against Al-Rasheed Trust (Maymar Trust) and Al-Rehmat Trust in Multan, Ansarul Ummah, Sipa-i-Sahaba and Tehreek-i-Ghulbai-i-Islam in Bahawalpur and Jaish-e-Muhammad in Gujranwala.¹⁹ The hands-on approach of booking banned organizations for illegal fund transfers and acquisitions, recently displayed by the Government; can be attributed to the Anti-Money Laundering Bill (Amendment) 2014 which has given greater powers to Investigating Officials and enhanced the scope of suspected transactions to include all kinds of domestic and international flow of funds.²⁰ In an attempt to improve existing laws, under the new amendment, financial institutions are obligated to report suspicious transactions to the Financial Monitoring Unit within seven days.²¹

The efforts and commitment of the Law Enforcement Agencies and the Government to combat terrorism financing are laudable and PILDAT commends efforts to dismantle terrorist financial networks . The task ahead is stupendous but this is a step in the right direction with the ultimate aim of completely rooting out terrorism in the country.

 
LeJ Leader Malik Ishaq Killed in Police Encounter

Additionally, the commitment to eliminate terrorism from the cities, has improved the performance of the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD), which has become e

 

References:

1. Highlights of Pakistan’s Budget, Pak Economy: http://www.opfblog.com/23242/highlights-of-pakistan-budget-2015-16/. Accessed on 18/08/2015

2. Pakistan Economic Survey: Two Years of Growth and Several Missed Targets, DAWN Webpage: http://www.dawn.com/news/1186172. Accessed on 18/8/2015

3. Federal Budget Focuses on Taxation, Dailynewspak Webpage: http://www.dailynewspak.com/federal-budget-2015-16-focuses-on-taxation/. Accessed on 18/8/2015.

4. Rs.1513.7 bn E2015-2016 approved, Pakistan Federal Budget. Accessed on 13/8/2015: http://budget.par.com.pk/news/rs1513-7-bn-budget-2015-2016-approved/

5. Budget 2015-2016:Text of Ishaq Dar’s Budget Speech. The Express Tribune: http://tribune.com.pk/story/898494/budget-2015-16-text-of-ishaq-dars-budget-speech/. Accessed on 13/8/2015

6. Budget 2015-2016 Highlights, http://hamariweb.com/finance/Pakistan-Federal-Budget-2015-16.aspx

7. Minister lauds allocations for environmental, energy issues. The Nation: http://nation.com.pk/islamabad/07-Jun-2015/minister-lauds-allocations-for-environmental-energy-issues. Accessed on 13/8/2015

8. Local Government Acts 2013 and Provincial-Local Government Relations, UNDP Webpage: http://www.pk.undp.org/content/pakistan/en/home/library/hiv_aids/development-advocate-pakistan/local-government-acts-2013-and-province-local-government-relatio.html. Accessed on 13/8/2015

9. Ruling PTI way ahead in KP Polls, The Nation. June 01 2015. http://nation.com.pk/national/01-Jun-2015/ruling-pti-way-ahead-in-kp-polls. Accessed on 18/08/2015.

10. PTI in the lead as local govt re-polls close in KP, The Express Tribune: http://tribune.com.pk/story/929684/pti-in-the-lead-as-local-govt-re-polls-come-to-a-close-in-k-p/. Accessed on 13/8/2015

11. Local government elections: Punjab ‘smartly’ changes poll rules, The Express Tribune: http://tribune.com.pk/story/926563/local-government-elections-punjab-smartly-changes-poll-rules/

12. Ibid

13. Zarb-e-Azab Year One, Asad Rahim Khan. The Express Tribune: http://tribune.com.pk/story/901942/zarb-e-azb-year-one/. Accessed on 13/8/2015

14. Zarb-e-Azab findings and conclusions, The News on Sunday: http://tns.thenews.com.pk/zarb-e-azb-one-year-on-findings-and-conclusions/#.Vb3UEJOqqko

15. For Details see Monitor on Civil-Military Relations in Pakistan for April 2015. Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT).https://www.pildat.org/eventsdel.asp?detid=751

16. For Details see Monitor on Civil-Military Relations in Pakistan in July 2015. Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT). https://www.pildat.org/eventsdel.asp?detid=768

17. Media Maturity in Zarb-e-Azb, The Nation. http://nation.com.pk/national/13-Aug-2014/media-maturity-in-zarb-e-azb. Accessed on 19/8/2015

18. Zarb-e-Azb and Beyond, Waqar K Kauravi, The NEWS. June 18 2015. http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-9-324307-Zarb-e-Azb-and-beyond

19. Banned Outfits Collecting Funds Booked, Punjab tells SC, Nasir Iqbal. July 30 2015. DAWN Webpage: http://www.dawn.com/news/1197226

20. Government proposes law to curb terror financing, Irfan Ghauri. The Express Tribune: http://tribune.com.pk/story/815499/govt-proposes-law-to-curb-terror-financing/

21. Ibid

22. Curbing Terrorism, Daily Times: http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/editorial/28-Dec-2014/curbing-terrorism. Accessed on 13/8/2015.

23. Malik Ishaq, Anti-Shiite Leader in Pakistan, Is Killed Trying to Escape, Authorities say, The New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/30/world/asia/malik-ishaq-leader-of-lashkar-e-jhangvi-militant-group-in-pakistan-is-said-to-die-in-attack-on-police-convoy.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0. Accessed on 13/8/2015.

24. Pakistan police kill leader of Lakshar-e-Jhangvi group, Aljazeera webpage: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/07/pakistan-police-kill-leader-lashkar-jhangvi-group-150729044020252.html. Accessed on 13/8/2015.

25. LeJ Leader, two sons, 12 other militants killed, DAWN Webpage: http://www.dawn.com/news/1197227. Accessed on 13/8/2015.

26. Ibid

27. CDA completes land eviction drive in I-11, Daily Times: http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/islamabad/03-Aug-2015/cda-completes-land-eviction-drive-in-i11

28. For Details see National Housing Policy 2001. Housing plans to cater for the current and future housing needs for low income groups on incremental basis at affordable, cost. Moreover, Katchi Abadis resettlement plans and up-gradation plans shall be an integral part of these housing plans.

29. Aitchison Principal Sacked for Defying the Mighty, The Nation. July 29 2015. http://nation.com.pk/national/29-Jul-2015/aitchison-principal-sacked-for-defying-the-mighty

30. The Sacking of a Principal, Anwer Mooraj. August 2 2015. The Express Tribune Webpage: http://tribune.com.pk/story/930591/the-sacking-of-a-principal/

31. Merit being ignored in foreign posting of trade officers, DAWN. July 22 2015. Webpage: http://www.dawn.com/news/1195515. Accessed on 13/8/2015.

32. Ibid

33. Political Appointees, DAWN: http://www.dawn.com/news/1199494. Accessed on 18/08/2015. Picture Courtesy Islamic Relief Malaysia

34. Flood Kills 13 in different parts of Pakistan, The Express Tribune: http://tribune.com.pk/story/924301/pm-leaves-for-chitral-to-monitor-relief-activities/

35. Pakistan-Floods (ECHO Daily Flash of 26 July 2015, Reliefweb: http://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-floods-echo-daily-flash-26-july-2015

36. For details see the National Disaster Management Authority. Government of Pakistan. http://www.ndma.gov.pk/new/newsroom/news2015.php

37. National Flood Protection Plan Discussed, The Nation: http://nation.com.pk/islamabad/13-Jan-2015/national-flood-protection-plan-discussed. Accessed on 13/8/2015

38. Developing an Integrated Flood Management Plan, Punjab Government. Chapter 9. http://punjab.gov.pk/sites/punjab.pitb.gov.pk/files/Ch9.pdf. Accessed on 18/08/2015

39. Updated: Heatwave death toll in Karachi reaches 1260, ARY News Webpage: http://arynews.tv/en/mercury-still-at-38-degrees-in-karachi. Accessed on 13/8/2015

40. All institutions responsible for Karachi heat wave death, The Nation Webpage: http://nation.com.pk/national/01-Jul-2015/all-institutions-responsible-for-karachi-heat-wave-death-pm

41. Federal government inquiry into heat wave deaths ordered, DAWN. http://www.dawn.com/news/1190648. Accessed on 19/08/2015

42. Eateries run in trouble as PFA exposes health risks, The Express Tribune: http://tribune.com.pk/story/930735/eateries-run-into-trouble-as-pfa-exposes-health-risks/

43. CM approves amendments to Punjab Food Authority Act . July 31, 2015. http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-5-331651-CM-approves-amendment-to-Punjab-Food-Authority-Act. Accessed 19/8/2015