The Calculus of Electoral Politics in Pakistan (1970-2008)

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Publication No: ER-028

Rs 3,000  

Based on the electoral analysis of Dr. Ijaz Shafi Gilani, Chairman Gallup Pakistan and an esteemed member of the Citizens Group on Electoral Process – CGEP, the paper on The Calculus of Electoral Politics in Pakistan (1970-2008) analyses the voting patterns across Pakistan during the past 8 nation-wide elections to assess the prospects of Election 2008. The paper is an attempt to go beyond the popularly-held perceptions in Pakistan on the likely outcome of the coming election and assesses the scenario based on scientific data of the past elections. The analysis of the voting pattern of the past is of special significance in the backdrop of the tragic demise of Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto, Chairperson of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the widespread perception that the PPP may “sweep” the polls on the crest of a “wave of sympathy” for Ms Bhutto. The author provides the necessary historical data on voting patterns to judge whether or not this perception is valid. In the author’s view the outcome of the 2008 elections is still unpredictable. Dr. Ijaz Shafi Gilani holds a doctorate from MIT and is considered an authority in the study of Pakistani Elections as well as a specialist in Public Opinion research. Under his leadership, the Gallup, Pakistan has studied the past 8 nation-wide elections. The paper is based on the invaluable research and analysis of the past elections.

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